Modi’s popularity in Uttar Pradesh more than that of Rahul Gandhi
With Lok Sabha polls round the corner, the India Today Group CVoter brings you an exclusive survey deciphering the mood of the people of Uttar Pradesh, the state with largest number of Lok Sabha seats.
About the survey
About 48 per cent of the participants said that they want Modi to become the next prime minister of the country, whereas 15 per cent of them think Rahul Gandhi is the most suitable candidate for the PM’s job.
Let’s have a look at the other questions and important outcomes of the Swarovski Crystals survey
Biggest Development issue in your area?
MODI REIGNS ALL OVER
Narendra Modi has the highest popularity ratings across all regions of Uttar Pradesh (48%).
Modi’s popularity is highest in Upper Doab region (58%) and lowest in Ruhelkhand (38%).
Mayawati’s popularity sees a surge only in Bundelkhand (37%) region. Elsewhere her ratings are low in comparison with Modi.
Mulayam’s popularity is highest in Lower Doab (31%) and lowest in Avadh (10%).
Mulayam’s average popularity is two and half times less than that of Modi.
Rahul Gandhi has very low popularity across all regions of Uttar Pradesh. Modi’s popularity is more than three times that of Rahul.
UP’S CASTE CAULDRON
UPPER CASTES RALLY BEHIND MODI
UP is witnessing a massive upper caste consolidation behind Narendra Modi. 43% of upper castes polled said they would vote for Modi. Congress’ support among upper castes (9%) has halved in comparison with 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
MUSLIM VOTE SCATTERED
Another big highlight is extreme fragmentation of Muslim vote across UP. Muslim vote is being split three way in UP. Con Swarovski Crystals g 22%, BSP 21%, SP 35%. Despite Muzaffarnagar, SP remains Swarovski Crystals first choice for UP’s Muslims (35%). Congress has lost a third of its support among UP’s Muslims. Despite Modi’s presence, support for BJP among Muslims has gone up in UP but very marginally from 5% to 7%. SP lost out on part of its Muslim vote bank in 2009 (28%) but party has now beaten Congress to emerge as top choice for UP’s Muslims.
IF CONGRESS BSP CONTEST TOGETHER
Most of BJP’s gains in vote share in UP (+9%) are coming at the cost of Congress ( 7%). BJP is the only party which has a positive swing in vote share (+9%). Samajwadi Party vote share is down significantly in comparison with Assembly Elections of 2012 ( 6%) but SP’s vote share is same as that of Lok Sabha 2009. Congress is being routed across Uttar Pradesh losing 17 out of its 21 seats. This is the second worst performance of the Congress party in UP. In 1998 Cong scored 0. 5 seats in 1991,1996.
BJP’s seat share (30) is thrice that of its tally in 2009 general elections. If Cong BSP were to contest together they dislodge Modi’s dominance in UP. Congress BSP together are projected to bag 39 out of 80 seats in UP.
Biggest loser in case of a Cong BSP alliance would be SP whose tally will crash to 14 seats from the projected 20 seats. In case of a BSP Cong alliance, Muslim votes will gravitate significantly from SP towar Swarovski Crystals ds BSP Congress. While BJP is gaining under Modi in UP, it is still far away from its 1998 peak of 57 seats and 37% vote share. In current scenario BSP is the biggest threat to Narendra Modi’s juggernaut.