Swarovski Crystal Mixed bag for CongressAll

Mixed bag for Congress

All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under reporting for independents and very small parties and over reporting for the ruling party/alliance to Swarovski Crystal arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided voters are those who did not disclose their vote preference. They have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share.

All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under reporting for independents and very small parties and over reporting for the ruling party/alliance to arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided voters are those who did not disclose their vote preference. They have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share.

All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under reporting for independents and very small parties and over reporting for the ruling party/alliance to arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided voters are those who did not disclose their vote preference. They have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share.

The south is not known for its support to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). With the BJP defeated in Karnataka only recently, the region appears set to live up to that reputation. Besides this common trend, the four States have somewhat different political stories to tell. Two States are ruled by the Congress (Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka), one has a Congress led coalition government (Kerala) and one (Tamil Nadu) has a State based party (the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam AIADMK) as its ruling party. In all the four States, people are less satisfied with the Central government than their State governments. However, all the States except Karnataka (which had a new government coming to power two and a half months ago) see a decline in the satisfaction with the State government as compared to two years ago.

Both Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu pose a challenge to the Congress. In Tamil Nadu, political equations today are vastly different from what they were at the time of the 2009 Lok Sabha poll. The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is no longer in alliance with the Congress and voters have not seen that step by the DMK as a serious issue. The Hindu CNN IBN Election Tracker Survey conducted by Lokniti Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS), Delhi shows that four of every 10 respondents believe that the DMK walking out of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) was a political drama. A fourth of traditional DMK voters too endorse this stand. Not surprisingly, its popularity too has dwindled and the AIADMK and the Congress are poised to benefit from this development. The ruling AIADMK seems to be gaining ground in southern and north central Tamil Nadu whereas the Congress appears to be doing better in upper north and western Tamil Nadu. The BJP vote share too registers an increase as compared to 2009. Overall, at the moment the wind is clearly blowing in favour of J. Jayalalithaa, who most people say has provided a better government than Karunanidhi. But it is still early days. Alliances between parties have yet to be worked out and the role of several other smaller regional parties will be crucial to the outcome in 2014. A lot will depend on alliance arithmetic and which and how many parties the AIADMK and the DMK tie up with in the run up to the Lok Sabha election.

In Andhra Pradesh, which contributed immensely to the Congress national victory in 2009, the party is in big trouble. The popularity of both the Congress led UPA at the Centre and the Congress Swarovski Crystal government in the State is extremely low (the lowest for the party in South India). The agitation over Telangana and the Jaganmohan Reddy factor appear to be the important drivers of political trends in the State. In Telangana, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Congress are in a close battle and any (in)decision on the future of the region will have important political consequences. As many as 79 per cent of the respondents in the Telangana region said they support the creation of a separate Telangana state, a figure that has gone up considerably since the last survey in 2009. What more, nine out of every 10 Telangana supporters say that their stand on Telangana will affect their Swarovski Crystal vote choice in the next Lok Sabha election. As compared to this, only a little over one third of those who want Andhra Pradesh to stay united take a similar stand. The YSR Congress, led by Jaganmohan Reddy, seems to be doing very well in the Rayalaseema region though its support is not as strong in coastal Andhra Pradesh. The support for Jaganmohan Reddy among traditional Congress supporters is evident in the fact that four out of every 10 feel he is innocent and being falsely implicated. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) seems to be squeezed out of the race by the presence of the YSR Congress especially in Rayalaseema and also in coastal Andhra.

Karnataka alone seems to have some good news for the Congress. The effect is transparently visible with the new State government being in power for less than three months. The non dominant Other Backward Classes (OBC) and minority votes seem to be clearly consolidating in favour of the Congress with a split across parties of the dominant Lingayat and Vokkaliga votes. The Congress seems to be consolidating its presence in coastal, central and southern Karnataka even as it retains support in the Hyderabad Karnataka region. It faces some competition from the BJP and Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) in the Mumbai Karnataka region. However, the split of votes between the BJP KJP would work to the Congress advantage. The Janata Dal (Secular) JD(S) continues to register a presence in southern Karnataka and is giving a fight to the Congress in the Hyderabad Karnataka region. Historically, the JD(S) has always focused more on Assembly elections than the Lok Sabha polls which again could work to the Congress advantage.

In Kerala, the Congress led United Democratic Front government seems to be on the back foot and has lost some support. Trends in the survey show that if the Lok Sabha election was to be held in the State now, the two major alliances would more or less evenly share the seats.

Each State of the South provides a picture in contrast. In Tamil Nadu, the nature of the competition between the State based parties would define and decide the choice in a Lok Sabha poll. In neighbouring Andhra Pradesh, the Telangana issue and the rise of Jaganmohan Reddy YSR Congress will be of crucial significance. Karnataka seems to be the safest bet for the Congress in this region and Kerala is witnessing a stiff competition between the two alliances. What price Ms Jay Lalithaa would demand in such a situation is not known. But given her history, the price will be a fairly heavy price including post of Deputy PM. BJP leaders who want Mr. Modi to be PM should be ready for paying a very high price for an alliance with AIADMK. (2) In another kind of situation, Parties like Trinamool Congress, Biju Janata Dal JD(U) and Telugu Desam may be getting ready to form government in Delhi with the support of Congress and left parties, if both the Congress and BJP fail to together win more than 275 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections. (3) Hence the concerned, non affiliated citizens are worried. Citizens have seen how UPA II has miserably failed to perform and how BJP and regional parties too, have nothing better to offer although all of them may claim good governance as their vote plank. All above parties are one or the other way same, having knowledge of karnataka’s politics i’d say, BJP lost it’s ground. winning 3 seats here would be achievement for BJP.

Posted on: Jul 25, 2013 at 07:45 IST

known to be a master strategist among the media friends, where does Arun Jaitley stands in this election, is he an over rated strategist in the BJP or the BJP doe Swarovski Crystal s not consider him as an effective strategist

Posted on: Jul 25, 2013 at 00:35 IST

Chandrababu has ruined his chances of winning in 2014,as there are many allegations of MATCH FIXING , between Congress and his own party. He has relied heavily on NTR. he is totally ignoring the intellectuals , and started the walkathons , which was a colossal waste of time money and energy. All the good work he has done when he was CM, is now annulled . as per the election tracker only 18 percent want him to be CM, whereas 25 percent want Jagan to be CM.

In Tamilnadu, cong can get only 5 6% votes. Dmk and Admk both can get get above 25% votes. dmdk will get around 10% votes. Bjp can get 3% votes. Dmk and dmdk alliance will win over admk.